You should be able to tell by feeling the top hose as you say you have been. It shouldn't be getting hot until the engine reaches operating temp which is when the thermostat opens up... If it's starting to get hot straight away, which sounds like the case, the thermostat needs changing.
Well if it is the thermostat, you'll be using a lot more juice. Mine got stuck open for a while and it took a long time ro reach operating temp but it did eventually... My mileage went down enough for me to want to change it quickly! Luckily the new OE thermo has been brilliant, the car reaches operating temp within 1.5miles of 'light' driving, i.e shifting before 3000 revs.
Not a difficult job to do and well worth doing.
