Oil prices - What's the breaking point for you?

[RockJock]

---snip---

So will you then leave it in the garage hoping that things will improve, or sell it before you can't give it away?

We are living in interesting times!

That's so true. Can you imagine what a Hummer H2 will be worth in a few years? I burn about $20/day and I'm noticing the used market for trucks getting softer and softer....I need a VW TDI that'll get me 1,000km/tank @ 40 bucks/tank...

What most people don't 'get' is that this 'peak oil' thing refers to conventional oil (i.e., the good high quality stuff at the apex of the "resource pyramid"). We're talking light sweet crude and not the $hit they're inefficiently (really $hitty EROEI) mining out of the tar sands. So, basically, what this means is that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end....and as we move down the pyramid extraction/exploitation gets much more costly from an energy return on energy invested perspective.

[Robin-535im]

Who owns the patents on large capacity Nickel-Metal-Hydride Batteries?

Do a search and see what you come with!

From what *little* I know - lithium ion are the leading technology at the moment and have 5x the energy density.

The T-Zero runs 250 miles and 0-60 in ~4 seconds using Li Ion...

[repenttokyo]

And where does the electricity come from to power 'said' electric cars?

Here in south eastern Australia most of our electricity is generated from dirty brown coal burning power stations. We have limited hydro and no nuclear here.

So in reality we'd be driving electric cars that, while not burning oil, are burning brown coal instead. Not a long term solution one would think.

Don't get me wrong, electric cars are going to be appearing everywhere over the next five years; it's just they need clean renewable power to charge them if they're going to be a sustainable, long term solution.

Part of the solution could be your home.
ALL new houses should be required to have at least 3KW's of solar power generation, solar hot water and water tanks.
This solar power could be used to charge your car for several days so you could drive for several hours.

Lots of electric cars mean lots of batteries.

Battery technology still needs more improvement, not just in storage and power capabilities but also in recyclability with minimal wastage and toxic by products.

you will have to buy your clean renewable energy from parts of the world that have waaaaay too much of it, like us

[Zeuk in Oz]

Interesting thread, pundit.

I think the price of petrol is still relatively cheap given the independence internal combustion engines give us.

Had cars just been invented, there is no way that the politicians would have let us have them.

A litre of petrol is cheaper than a litre of water in a bottle or a litre of milk - both of which are readily renewable.

I feel that there is little point in complaining, but rather suggest that future cars that any of us buy, new or second hand, should be powered by diesel. This will give us a 50% fuel saving compared to petrol engines in one go. I own 2 common rail direct injection diesels - a MB 270 CDI and a MB 115 CDI Vito van. Both are automatic, seat 7 or 8 and use less than 10 litres per 100 km.

I own 5 cars and all use less than or about 9 - 9.5 litres per 100 km.

[repenttokyo]

I get most of these criticisms, but here wego:

1) Where to get the electricity? Fact: Even if you continue to use your current infrastructure without expanding 50% of cars can be recharged without affecting energy production. Why? Because nighttime production is still way over capacity.
Next is renewable energy. It's easier to control electricity production resources than millions of ICE cars on the road requiring heavily refined products to supply the energy. Better yet, nuclear energy is quickly becoming environmentally sustainable with newer reactor designs and even waste can be used to make electricity and inert bricks without radioactive waste being an issue. Systems to do this are being pioneered all over the world and the waste treatment system in Israel.
Besides, Photovoltaics are going to drop in cost substantially over the next five years (-75%) with the advent of new production techniques (check out nanosolar).
In Australia I can imagine there's ample room for a few Concentrated Solar Power plants like the (small) experimantal one in Spain operating at 100MW.

2) Batteries not big enough? Well yes and no: current technology Lithium batteries are capable of giving you some 100-200 miles autonomy depending on the type of design and size of the packs. This technology is rapidly evolving. Besides the lithium batteries, other battery-types are well on the way that could change the game entirely.
Best option now: altairnano batteries, full charge capable in 10 mins, but requires a strong charging infrastructure to get the desired 10 mins to full charge. That infrastructure wouldn't be as big as the existing gasoline station network because 90% of the time people would charge the car at home at night.
You're right about recyclability and if EESTOR pulls through this year that might no longer be an issue with their ultracaps. Those are expected to appear in EVs in 2009.

Part of the reason these technologies are evolving at a speedy rate is the current high oil price, so I'm not that angry with the situation.
You'll see that the auto industry is finally catching up and are starting to build PHEVs wich pretty much aknowledges that they understand that the ICE may be on the way out and gone by 2020. They're mostly stalling because the investments for retooling are still to steep compared to the shortterm return on investment.

great post, thanks for the info.

[pundit]

thanks for the link pundit. I just checked out the Olduvai theory, and it seems to me the trouble with it is that it takes into account only oil as an energy resource...

Oil, or the lack of it as far as an energy source is not the only issue.

Pesticides, fertilisers etc. mostly require or use some petroleum based by-products in their production along with nearly all forms of manufacturing whether it be automotive, building products, plastics, rubber, electronics, most textiles, pharmaceuticals, paint, dyes etc. etc .etc.

Just about every product in our world requires petro-chemicals to exist.

One of the major concerns is a net reduction in global agriculture yields not just because farmer Brown can't afford the diesel for his tractor but due to fertiliser and pesticide shortgages.

Add to that agricultural land being utilised for biofuel production and already many countries are experiencing food shortages and sky rocketing prices.

[pundit]

Here's a few more links...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_pri...ses_since_2003

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[repenttokyo]

Whats nice is my car is fully equipped to run E85 if I need. Right now the price of 93 octane + methanol is still well below the price of 109 - 112 octane unleaded, so I am not too worried right now. The price increase always comes with summer and then settles down more...

People like to look at gas prices without looking at the prices of other things as well. $3.50 cannot buy today what $3.50 could buy 10 years ago regarding all things, not just fuel. Inflation is a very real aspect too.

even adjusted, gas prices now are higher than they have ever been.

[repenttokyo]

Nice perspective, but all wars are conducted on the basis of fear. And most social fears boil down to economic fears.

Doesn't mean they are conducted for PROFIT, but foreconomic reasons... fear of losing a resource, fear of losing economic (& thus politicals and social influence) etc. The greatest 'religious' war in history, the Crusades, was actually fought for economic reasons. WWII the same.

how exactly was wwii fought for economic reasons? if i recall correctly, england was fighting to keep from falling under German control like most of the rest of Europe.

[Morgenster]

two words: electric cars. They're a comin and they're gonna be stayin.